![]() These values are reflected in policy that aims to preserve ecosystem services, biodiversity in general, or designated species of concern. The vertical axis (grey) illustrates how the focus shifts from natural processes in basic ecology to human values and actions in a policy context. The horizontal axis (black) illustrates how the landscape definition shifts from a multi-functional landscape in the context of land-use planning to an organism perspective in the context of species conservation. We conclude that every parameter in species-agnostic connectivity modelling requires attention, not only the definition of often-criticized expert-based degrees of human modification.Ĭonceptual framework: different perspectives on the landscape ( a) and corresponding goals and approaches to connectivity modelling ( b). We observed higher concordance among cells with high (standardized) current density values than among cells with low values, which supports the identification of cells contributing to larger-scale connectivity based on a cut-off value. Connectivity maps were most sensitive to the consideration of water as barrier to movement, followed by the choice of scaling function, whereas maps were more robust to different conceptualizations of the degree of human modification. We directly compared the uncertainty related to (1) the definition of the degree of human modification, (2) the decision whether water bodies are considered barriers to movement, and (3) the scaling function used to translate degree of human modification into resistance values. We propose a conceptual framework, apply it to model connectivity as current density across Alberta, Canada, and assess map sensitivity to modelling decisions. In the context of multi-functional land-use planning, there is growing interest in species-agnostic approaches, modelling connectivity as a function of human landscape modification. Commonly-used species-specific connectivity models are difficult to generalize for a wide range of taxa. Relate more broadly to the predictability of complex adaptive systems.Sustainable land-use planning should consider large-scale landscape connectivity. We further anticipate that our findings willĬontribute to the rapidly growing field of epidemiological forecasting and may Highlight the importance of moving beyond time series forecasting, by embracingĭynamic modeling approaches, and suggest challenges for performing model Mechanisms for the observed differences across contagions. Shifting model structures and social network heterogeneity are the most likely We alsoįind that the forecast horizon varies by disease and demonstrate that both ![]() Prediction is often well beyond the time scale of single outbreaks. However, we find that for most diseases this barrier to Gonorrhea, hepatitis A, influenza, measles, mumps, polio, and whoopingĬough-we identify a fundamental entropy barrier for infectious disease time Of a diverse collection of historical outbreaks-including, chlamydia, dengue, Question of outbreak prediction, we study the information theoretic limits toįorecasting across a broad set of infectious diseases using permutation entropyĪs a model independent measure of predictability. Presence of fundamental limits to outbreak prediction. ![]() The science and practice of disease forecasting now requires testing for the Predicting different components of outbreaks-e.g., the expected number ofĬases, pace and tempo of cases needing treatment, demand for prophylacticĮquipment, importation probability etc.-is feasible. Result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires aĬomplex systems approach to modeling. Multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Scarpino and Giovanni Petri Download PDF Abstract: Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the Download a PDF of the paper titled On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks, by Samuel V.
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